Well worth a read - as eclectic and simultaneously comprehensive collection of the important tags in US tech policy that you'll find anywhere. Here's a few:
"(1) DRM technology will still fail to prevent widespread infringement. In a related development, pigs will still fail to fly...Can't say I agree with all of these (even the Freedom to Tinkerers don't agree with all of them) especially number 4 on the 3 strikes approach, given the ongoing success of the music industry in pushing this in Europe, but we'll see.
(4) The RIAA's "graduated response" initiative will sputter and die because ISPs are unwilling to cut off users based on unrebutted accusations. Lawsuits against individual end-user infringers will quietly continue...
(7) NebuAd and the regional ISPs recently sued for deploying NebuAd's advertising system will settle with the class action plantiffs for an undisclosed sum. At least in part because of the lawsuit and settlement, no U.S. ISP will deploy a new NebuAd/Phorm-like system in 2009. Meanwhile, Phorm will continue to be successful with privacy regulators in the UK and will sign up reluctant ISPs there who are facing competitive pressure. Activists will raise strong objections to no avail.
(8) The federal Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit will hear oral argument in the case of U.S. v. Lori Drew, the Megan Meier/MySpace prosecution. By year's end, the Ninth Circuit panel still will not have issued a decision, although after oral argument, the pundits will predict a 3-0 or 2-1 reversal of the conviction...
(11) An academic security researcher will face prosecution under the CFAA, anti wire tapping laws, or other computer intrusion statutes for violations that occurred in the process of research...
(16) One of the major American voting system manufacturers (Diebold/Premier, Sequoia, ES&S, or Hart InterCivic) will go out of business or be absorbed into one of its rivals...(19) We'll see the first clear-cut evidence of a malicious attack on a voting system fielded in a state or local election. This attack will exploit known flaws in a "toe in the water" test and vendors will say they fixed the flaw years ago and the new version is in the certification pipeline.
(20) U.S. federal government computers will suffer from at least one high-profile compromise by a foreign entity, leaking a substantial amount of classified or highly sensitive information abroad...
(28) Facebook will be sold for $4 billion and Mark Zuckerberg will step down as CEO...
(35) Somebody besides Apple will sell an iPod clone that's a drop-in replacement for a real iPod, complete with support for iTunes DRM, video playback, and so forth. Apple will sue (or threaten to sue), but won't be able to stop distribution of this product."
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